{
 "meta": {
  "model_version": "v0.5",
  "run_date": "2026-06-11",
  "checkpoint_date": "2026-09-09",
  "report_type": "90-day calibration checkpoint",
  "window": "2026-06-11 to 2026-09-09",
  "description": "First out-of-sample test of the v0.5 mapping. Fourteen players scored on June 11, all resolved as binary outcomes on September 9. No IL-unscored exclusions in this cohort.",
  "data_fidelity_note": "One row (Owen Caissie) was mis-scored at run date: he was an active major leaguer with Miami during the window, not a call-up candidate. The row is graded as written because closed runs are never edited. Metrics are reported both with and without it."
 },
 "headline_metrics": {
  "scored_players": 14,
  "resolved_1": 5,
  "resolved_0": 9,
  "observed_base_rate": 0.3571,
  "mean_prediction": 0.29,
  "brier_score": 0.2375,
  "naive_constant_brier": 0.2296,
  "beat_naive": false,
  "brier_excluding_misscored_row": 0.2212,
  "naive_excluding_misscored_row": 0.213,
  "auc": 0.689,
  "brier_note": "The model scored worse than a constant prediction of the observed base rate. This is a failed checkpoint on this cohort and is reported as such."
 },
 "calibration_buckets": [
  {
   "bucket": "45%+",
   "n": 3,
   "predicted_avg_pct": 51.7,
   "observed_rate_pct": 33.3,
   "verdict": "Overpredicted. Driven by White at 62 percent, who was shut down for the season."
  },
  {
   "bucket": "30-44%",
   "n": 3,
   "predicted_avg_pct": 33.0,
   "observed_rate_pct": 66.7,
   "verdict": "Underpredicted, and includes the mis-scored Caissie row."
  },
  {
   "bucket": "20-29%",
   "n": 6,
   "predicted_avg_pct": 22.5,
   "observed_rate_pct": 33.3,
   "verdict": "Underpredicted. Jenkins and Anderson both debuted at 23 percent."
  },
  {
   "bucket": "<20%",
   "n": 2,
   "predicted_avg_pct": 8.5,
   "observed_rate_pct": 0.0,
   "verdict": "Correct. Walcott had UCL surgery, Tait stayed at High-A."
  }
 ],
 "key_finding": "Bucket ordering broke. The 30-44 band resolved at a higher rate than the 45-plus band, the first non-monotonic result the model has produced. Mean prediction was 29.0 percent against an observed base rate of 35.7 percent, so v0.5 is still running low overall, the same direction of error the June checkpoint found and the v0.5 patch was meant to fix. The single largest penalty came from underprediction, not overprediction: Jenkins and Anderson both debuted at 23 percent.",
 "resolved_outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Thomas White",
   "org": "MIA",
   "pos": "LHP",
   "cup": 62,
   "outcome": 0,
   "debut": null,
   "note": "Shut down for the season in August with a left shoulder capsular sprain. Miami chose to prepare him for 2027. He was on the minor league IL at run date."
  },
  {
   "name": "Charlie Condon",
   "org": "COL",
   "pos": "1B/OF",
   "cup": 48,
   "outcome": 0,
   "debut": null,
   "note": "Never left Triple-A Albuquerque. Hit .337/.462/.814 in June, then fell to a .758 OPS in July and .695 in August as pitchers adjusted."
  },
  {
   "name": "Hagen Smith",
   "org": "CWS",
   "pos": "LHP",
   "cup": 45,
   "outcome": 1,
   "debut": "2026-08-09",
   "note": "Two hitless scoreless relief innings in his debut against Cleveland."
  },
  {
   "name": "Owen Caissie",
   "org": "MIA",
   "pos": "OF",
   "cup": 33,
   "outcome": 1,
   "debut": null,
   "note": "Appeared in the majors throughout the window as Miami's primary right fielder. See the data-quality note: he was an active major leaguer at run date and should not have been scored as a call-up candidate."
  },
  {
   "name": "Emmanuel Rodriguez",
   "org": "MIN",
   "pos": "OF",
   "cup": 33,
   "outcome": 0,
   "debut": null,
   "note": "Stayed at Triple-A St. Paul. Minnesota promoted Jenkins ahead of him after the Buxton injury."
  },
  {
   "name": "Kaelen Culpepper",
   "org": "MIN",
   "pos": "SS",
   "cup": 33,
   "outcome": 1,
   "debut": "2026-08-07",
   "note": "Homered in his second major league plate appearance after returning from a recurring glute strain."
  },
  {
   "name": "Walker Jenkins",
   "org": "MIN",
   "pos": "OF",
   "cup": 23,
   "outcome": 1,
   "debut": "2026-08-28",
   "note": "Promoted after a Byron Buxton injury. Singled in his debut."
  },
  {
   "name": "Kade Anderson",
   "org": "SEA",
   "pos": "LHP",
   "cup": 23,
   "outcome": 1,
   "debut": "2026-08-22",
   "note": "Started against the Cubs: 5.2 innings, three earned runs, five strikeouts."
  },
  {
   "name": "Ryan Sloan",
   "org": "SEA",
   "pos": "RHP",
   "cup": 23,
   "outcome": 0,
   "debut": null,
   "note": "Finished the season at Double-A Arkansas. Nineteen years old."
  },
  {
   "name": "Franklin Arias",
   "org": "BOS",
   "pos": "SS",
   "cup": 22,
   "outcome": 0,
   "debut": null,
   "note": "Strong full season at Double-A but Boston never made the move."
  },
  {
   "name": "Josue De Paula",
   "org": "LAD",
   "pos": "OF",
   "cup": 22,
   "outcome": 0,
   "debut": null,
   "note": "Hit .315 at Double-A Tulsa. Discussed as a September call-up but the Dodgers logjam held, exactly the 0.88 org coefficient at work."
  },
  {
   "name": "Aiva Arquette",
   "org": "MIA",
   "pos": "SS",
   "cup": 22,
   "outcome": 0,
   "debut": null,
   "note": "Two separate IL stints limited him to 49 games between High-A and Double-A. Headed to the Arizona Fall League to make up at-bats."
  },
  {
   "name": "Eduardo Tait",
   "org": "MIN",
   "pos": "C",
   "cup": 12,
   "outcome": 0,
   "debut": null,
   "note": "Still at High-A. Catcher timelines are the slowest in the model for a reason."
  },
  {
   "name": "Sebastian Walcott",
   "org": "TEX",
   "pos": "SS/3B",
   "cup": 5,
   "outcome": 0,
   "debut": null,
   "note": "UCL surgery announced in February put the whole season in jeopardy. Correctly the lowest number in the cohort."
  }
 ],
 "miss_log": [
  {
   "player": "Thomas White",
   "type": "injury-status blind spot",
   "cup": 62,
   "detail": "Scored 62 percent, the largest number the model has published, while already on the minor league injured list at run date. Miami shut him down in August. The model has no injury-status feature and this is the second time that gap has cost it."
  },
  {
   "player": "Walker Jenkins",
   "type": "opportunity underweight",
   "cup": 23,
   "detail": "Promoted after a Byron Buxton injury opened center field. The model prices org opportunity from season-long context and does not react to in-window injuries to blockers, which is precisely what the live PIX layer was built to catch and the batch model is not."
  },
  {
   "player": "Kade Anderson",
   "type": "level-proximity underweight",
   "cup": 23,
   "detail": "Scored at Double-A and jumped straight to a major league start. The level-proximity feature penalizes non-Triple-A players heavily; for elite arms on a contending club that penalty appears too steep."
  },
  {
   "player": "Charlie Condon",
   "type": "performance-trend miss",
   "cup": 48,
   "detail": "Second-highest number in the cohort. His OPS fell from 1.276 in June to .758 in July and .695 in August. The 30-day performance feature is measured at run date only and cannot see forward decay."
  },
  {
   "player": "Owen Caissie",
   "type": "data quality",
   "cup": 33,
   "detail": "Should never have been in the cohort. He was Miami's primary right fielder during the window. An eligibility check against active MLB rosters at run date would have removed him."
  }
 ],
 "v0.6_candidates": [
  "Injury status at run date as a hard feature or an eligibility gate. Two checkpoints, two costly failures.",
  "Eligibility screen: exclude any player with active MLB roster status at run date.",
  "Reduce the level-proximity penalty for Double-A arms in contending organizations.",
  "Consider raising the mid-band mapping again. Mean prediction still trails the observed base rate."
 ],
 "discipline_note": "No mapping refit is applied in this report. v0.5 stays live until Sub-Batch C resolves on October 8, at which point 79 outcomes across two cohorts inform a single revision. Refitting on 14 outcomes would be exactly the small-sample overfitting the shrinkage step exists to prevent."
}