Public Track Record · Model v0.4 · Sub-Batch A

Calibration
Log

Every prediction from the March 20, 2026 batch is logged here publicly and permanently before any outcomes resolve. The Brier score is calculated on June 18, 2026. Misses are logged alongside hits — no exceptions.

Model Integrity Statement
All outputs on this page were generated on March 20, 2026 using model v0.4. They are immutable — no prediction is ever edited retroactively. This page exists because calibration transparency is the only honest way to build trust in a probabilistic model. If the model is wrong, it will say so here.
March 20, 2026Run Date
v0.4Model Version
27Players Evaluated
Sub-Batch ABatch ID
June 18, 202690-Day Resolution
PendingBrier Score
Resolved — Active MLB · Opening Day 2026
PlayerOrg / PosCUPStatusOutcome
JJ Wetherholt
Carry-forward · Pipeline #5 · OD Starter
STL 2B
ACTIVE
Active MLB✓ Resolved
Nolan McLean
Pipeline #6 · OD No. 2 Starter · PPI: Check
NYM SP
ACTIVE
Active MLB✓ Resolved
Andrew Painter
Pipeline #28 · TJS return · Debut Mar 31
PHI SP
ACTIVE
Active MLB✓ Resolved
Chase DeLauter
Pipeline #46 · OD Bench/Platoon
CLE OF
ACTIVE
Active MLB✓ Resolved
High CUP · April / May Window · CUP ≥22%
PlayerOrg / PosCUPECD MidECD RangeConfStatusOutcome
Carson Benge
NYM · Spring .406/.972 · OD decision vs. Tauchman
NYM OF
38%
Apr 10
Mar 27 – May 8
▸ HighPending
Travis Bazzana
CLE · Sent down Mar 17 · Vogt: May/June window
CLE 2B
35%
May 14
Apr 30 – Jun 4
▸ HighPending
Konnor Griffin ⊕
PIT · No viable MLB SS alt · Extension talks
PIT SS
34%
Apr 17
Apr 3 – May 29
◈ MedPending
Zac Veen
COL · On 40-man · 1.02 org coeff
COL OF
28%
Apr 16
Apr 9 – Apr 30
▸ HighPending
Thomas White ⚠
MIA · Oblique injury · PPI window at risk
MIA SP
27%
May 7
Apr 9 – Apr 30
◈ MedPending
Colt Emerson ⚠
SEA · OD battle vs. Young · PPI deadline Apr 9
SEA SS
24%
Apr 9
Mar 26 – May 1
▸ HighPending
Jett Williams
MIL · PPI retained from NYM trade
MIL SS/OF
24%
Apr 16
Apr 9 – Apr 30
▸ HighPending
Parker Messick
CLE · 1.93 spring ERA · next in CLE rotation
CLE SP
23%
Apr 16
Apr 9 – Apr 30
▸ HighPending
Aidan Miller
PHI · Back injury spring · Painter on PPI track
PHI SS/3B
22%
Apr 16
Apr 9 – Apr 30
▸ HighPending
Samuel Basallo
BAL · C base rate suppressor · 116+ mph exit velo
BAL C
22%
Apr 16
Apr 9 – Apr 30
▸ HighPending
Charlie Condon ⊕
COL · Carry-forward · Svc time confirmed Mar 19
COL 1B
22%
Jun 10
May 27 – Jul 1
◈ MedPending
Medium CUP · Summer Window · CUP 13–21%
PlayerOrg / PosCUPECD MidECD RangeConfStatusOutcome
Max Clark ⚠
DET · Not on 40-man · PPI →None expected Apr 9
DET OF
15%
Jun 24
Jun 3 – Jul 24
○ LowPending
Ryan Sloan
SEA · A+ · Sep debut possible if fast-tracks
SEA SP
15%
Jun 24
May 25 – Jul 24
○ LowPending
Kade Anderson
SEA · A+ · First pro season · Sep debut plausible
SEA SP
15%
Jul 29
Jul 8 – Aug 28
○ LowPending
Nate George
BAL · A+ · Fast-rising · Needs AA first
BAL OF
14%
Jul 29
Jul 8 – Aug 28
○ LowPending
Luis Peña
MIL · AA · 19yr old · developmental gap
MIL INF
14%
Jul 29
Jul 8 – Aug 28
○ LowPending
Cooper Pratt
MIL · AA · Made/Peña/Williams ahead
MIL SS
14%
Jul 29
Jul 8 – Aug 28
○ LowPending
Theo Gillen
TBR · AA · 0.85 coeff — most conservative org
TBR OF
13%
Jul 29
Jul 8 – Aug 28
○ LowPending
IL / Below Threshold · CUP <10%
PlayerOrg / PosCUPStatusNote
Trey Yesavage
TOR · Right shoulder impingement · No timeline
TOR SP
<8%
15-day ILPPI forfeited
Arjun Nimmala
TOR · A+ · 2028 ETA per Pipeline
TOR SS
~7%
Below thresholdNo 90d window
Josue De Paula
LAD · AA · Tucker/Pages/Hernandez logjam
LAD OF
~7%
Below thresholdLAD blocker
Zyhir Hope
LAD · AA · Same org structural barrier
LAD OF
~7%
Below thresholdLAD blocker
Xavier Isaac
TBR · A+ · Brain surgery return · TBR patience
TBR 1B
~6%
Below thresholdTBR + 1B rate
Accuracy Metrics — June 18, 2026

Calculated on June 18, 2026. All 27 binary outcomes (1 = MLB appearance within 90 days, 0 = no appearance) resolved and logged on that date. This section updates once and is then permanent.

Brier Score
Pending Jun 18
Lower = better. Target: improve vs. naive baseline.
ECD Accuracy
Pending Jun 18
% of call-ups within Early–Late ECD window. Target: >65%.
Band Accuracy
Pending Jun 18
% in each CUS band actually called up. Validates CUS→CUP mapping.