Results are in. The first cohort resolved June 18. Fourteen of 28 reached the majors and the model ranked all 28 in the right order. See the full breakdown ›
New batch. Sub-Batch C is live: 65 more predictions locked on the v0.5 engine, the full healthy Top 100. Window closes October 8 ›
Call-Up Probability Engine  ·  First Results In  ·  June 18, 2026

Who Gets
Called Up
Next.

One question: when does this player get called up? The question is timing, and timing is measurable. 107 predictions locked across three cohorts, scored on 13 quantifiable features, 30 org coefficients, and a 3-pathway call-up date engine. All of it here to help you understand the game a little better than you did yesterday.

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MKDC Baseball
107
Players Scored
3
Cohorts Locked
6/6
First Cohort Top Band Up
90d
Forecast Window
.148
First-Cohort Brier
First cohort resolved June 18 · Sub-Batch B closes Sep 9 · Sub-Batch C closes Oct 8 · Model v0.5
Live Layer · Promotion Index · Updated 2026-08-06
PIX Board: Who Is Closest Right Now
Full board + ledger

One number per prospect: how much promotion pressure is on him today. It moves only on sourced, logged events and drifts back to the model baseline when nothing happens. Right now 0 of 92 tracked players are knocking or closer. Not a probability, not a scored CUP run. How to read it.

#PlayerOrgPIX7d
1Thomas WhiteMIA51–
2Charlie CondonCOL48–
3Angel GenaoCLE45–
4Lazaro MontesSEA44–
5Carlos LagrangeNYY38–
6Hagen SmithCWS34–
7Jett WilliamsMIL33–
8Owen CaissieMIA33–
9Ralphy VelazquezCLE33–
10Karson MilbrandtMIA32–

Latest from the board: The Trade That Proved the Point  ·  Two Ways to Be Blocked  ·  Cleveland Is Promoting Prospects in Waves

PIX is a live directional index derived from the MKDC model. It is not a scored CUP run and is not used for calibration.

Locked Board · 79 open predictions · ECDs included
The CUP Leaderboard
How the model works ›

Call-Up Probability for every tracked prospect, locked at its run date and graded when its window closes. Each row carries its projected call-up window (ECD). This board pairs with the live PIX pressure board: CUP is the locked forecast, PIX is the live read.

All (79) Sub-Batch A (1) Sub-Batch B (14) Sub-Batch C (64)
1
Thomas WhiteSub-Batch BMIA · LHP · AAA· PIX 51· closes Sep 9
62%
Aug 2026High conf
2
Charlie CondonSub-Batch BCOL · 1B/OF · AAA· PIX 48· closes Sep 9
48%
Aug 2026High conf
3
Angel GenaoSub-Batch CCLE · SS · AAA· PIX 45· closes Oct 8
45%
Aug 2026High conf
4
Hagen SmithSub-Batch BCWS · LHP · AAA· PIX 34· closes Sep 9
45%
Aug 2026High conf
5
Lazaro MontesSub-Batch CSEA · OF · AAA· PIX 44· closes Oct 8
44%
Sep 2026Medium conf
6
Carlos LagrangeSub-Batch CNYY · RHP · AAA· PIX 38· closes Oct 8
38%
Sep 2026Medium conf
7
Emmanuel RodriguezSub-Batch BMIN · OF · AAA· PIX 22· closes Sep 9
33%
Sep 2026Medium conf
8
Jett WilliamsSub-Batch CMIL · 3B/SS · AAA· PIX 33· closes Oct 8
33%
Sep 2026Medium conf
9
Kaelen CulpepperSub-Batch BMIN · SS · AAA· PIX 22· closes Sep 9
33%
Sep 2026Medium conf
10
Owen CaissieSub-Batch BMIA · OF · AAA· PIX 33· closes Sep 9
33%
Sep 2026Medium conf
11
Ralphy VelazquezSub-Batch CCLE · 1B/OF · AAA· PIX 33· closes Oct 8
33%
Sep 2026Medium conf
12
Karson MilbrandtSub-Batch CMIA · RHP · AAA· PIX 32· closes Oct 8
32%
Sep 2026Medium conf
13
James Tibbs IIISub-Batch CLAD · 1B/OF · AAA· PIX 29· closes Oct 8
29%
Sep 2026Medium conf
14
Alfredo DunoSub-Batch CCIN · C · AA· PIX 28· closes Oct 8
28%
Beyond 2026Low conf
15
Harry FordSub-Batch CWSH · C · AAA· PIX 28· closes Oct 8
28%
Sep 2026Medium conf
16
Theo GillenSub-Batch CTB · OF · AA· PIX 31· closes Oct 8
28%
Beyond 2026Low conf
17
Kade AndersonSub-Batch BSEA · LHP · AA· PIX 26· closes Sep 9
23%
Beyond 2026Low conf
18
Ryan SloanSub-Batch BSEA · RHP · AA· PIX 23· closes Sep 9
23%
Beyond 2026Low conf
19
Walker JenkinsSub-Batch BMIN · OF · AAA· PIX 23· closes Sep 9
23%
Sep–Oct 2026Low conf
20
Aidan MillerSub-Batch APHI · SS · AAA· PIX 12· closes closed
22%
Sep–Oct 2026Low conf
21
Aiva ArquetteSub-Batch BMIA · SS · AA· PIX 13· closes Sep 9
22%
Beyond 2026Low conf
22
Anthony EyansonSub-Batch CBOS · RHP · AA· PIX 22· closes Oct 8
22%
Beyond 2026Low conf
23
Braylon DoughtySub-Batch CCLE · RHP · AA· PIX 22· closes Oct 8
22%
Beyond 2026Low conf
24
Caleb BonemerSub-Batch CCWS · 3B/SS · AA· PIX 22· closes Oct 8
22%
Beyond 2026Low conf
25
Devin Fitz-GeraldSub-Batch CWSH · INF · AA· PIX 22· closes Oct 8
22%
Beyond 2026Low conf
26
Edward FlorentinoSub-Batch CPIT · OF/1B · A+· PIX 22· closes Oct 8
22%
Beyond 2026Low conf
27
Eli WillitsSub-Batch CWSH · SS · A+· PIX 22· closes Oct 8
22%
Beyond 2026Low conf
28
Franklin AriasSub-Batch BBOS · SS · AA· PIX 22· closes Sep 9
22%
Beyond 2026Low conf
29
Gage WoodSub-Batch CPHI · RHP · AA· PIX 22· closes Oct 8
22%
Beyond 2026Low conf
30
Jamie ArnoldSub-Batch CATH · LHP · AA· PIX 22· closes Oct 8
22%
Beyond 2026Low conf
31
Jefferson RojasSub-Batch CCHC · SS · AA· PIX 22· closes Oct 8
22%
Beyond 2026Low conf
32
Jesus MadeSub-Batch CMIL · SS · AA· PIX 22· closes Oct 8
22%
Beyond 2026Low conf
33
Josh AdamczewskiSub-Batch CMIL · OF · AA· PIX 22· closes Oct 8
22%
Beyond 2026Low conf
34
Joshua BaezSub-Batch CSTL · OF · AAA· PIX 22· closes Oct 8
22%
Sep–Oct 2026Low conf
35
Josue De PaulaSub-Batch BLAD · OF · AA· PIX 22· closes Sep 9
22%
Beyond 2026Low conf
36
Leo De VriesSub-Batch CATH · SS · AA· PIX 22· closes Oct 8
22%
Beyond 2026Low conf
37
Liam DoyleSub-Batch CSTL · LHP · AA· PIX 22· closes Oct 8
22%
Beyond 2026Low conf
38
Luis PeñaSub-Batch CMIL · INF · A+· PIX 22· closes Oct 8
22%
Beyond 2026Low conf
39
Nolan PerrySub-Batch CTOR · RHP · AA· PIX 22· closes Oct 8
22%
Beyond 2026Low conf
40
Michael ArroyoSub-Batch CSEA · 2B/OF · AAA· PIX 21· closes Oct 8
21%
Sep–Oct 2026Low conf
41
Christian ZazuetaSub-Batch CLAD · RHP · AA· PIX 19· closes Oct 8
19%
Beyond 2026Low conf
42
Mike SirotaSub-Batch CLAD · OF · AA· PIX 19· closes Oct 8
19%
Beyond 2026Low conf
43
Rainiel RodriguezSub-Batch CSTL · C · AA· PIX 19· closes Oct 8
19%
Beyond 2026Low conf
44
Zyhir HopeSub-Batch CDET · OF · AA· PIX 23· closes Oct 8
19%
Beyond 2026Low conf
45
Billy CarlsonSub-Batch CCWS · SS · A· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
46
Bryce RainerSub-Batch CDET · SS · A+· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
47
Caden ScarboroughSub-Batch CTEX · RHP · A+· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
48
Cam CaminitiSub-Batch CATL · LHP · A+· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
49
Dax KilbySub-Batch CNYY · SS · A· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
50
Eduardo TaitSub-Batch BMIN · C · A+· PIX 12· closes Sep 9
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
51
Eric HartmanSub-Batch CATL · OF · A+· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
52
Felnin CelestenSub-Batch CSEA · SS · A+· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
53
Francisco RenteriaSub-Batch CPHI · OF · ROK· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
54
Ike IrishSub-Batch CBAL · OF/1B · A+· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
55
Jaxon WigginsSub-Batch CCHC · RHP · A+· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
56
Jhonny LevelSub-Batch CSF · SS · A+· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
57
JoJo ParkerSub-Batch CTOR · SS · A· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
58
Jonny FarmeloSub-Batch CSEA · OF · A+· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
59
Josh HammondSub-Batch CKC · SS/3B · A· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
60
Josiah HartshornSub-Batch CCHC · OF/1B · A+· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
61
Josuar GonzalezSub-Batch CSF · SS · ROK· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
62
Josue BriceñoSub-Batch CDET · C/1B · A· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
63
Justin GonzalesSub-Batch CBOS · OF · A+· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
64
Kayson CunninghamSub-Batch CARI · SS · A+· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
65
Kendry ChourioSub-Batch CKC · RHP · A+· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
66
Kevin AlvarezSub-Batch CHOU · OF · A· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
67
Luis HernandezSub-Batch CSF · SS · ROK· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
68
Roldy BritoSub-Batch CCOL · OF/2B · A· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
69
Ronny CruzSub-Batch CWSH · INF · A+· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
70
Seth HernandezSub-Batch CPIT · RHP · A+· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
71
Steele HallSub-Batch CCIN · SS · ROK· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
72
Tyler BremnerSub-Batch CLAA · RHP · A+· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
73
Xavier NeyensSub-Batch CHOU · 3B/SS · A· PIX 12· closes Oct 8
12%
Beyond 2026Low conf
74
Charles DavalanSub-Batch CLAD · OF · A+· PIX 11· closes Oct 8
11%
Beyond 2026Low conf
75
Eduardo QuinteroSub-Batch CLAD · OF · A+· PIX 11· closes Oct 8
11%
Beyond 2026Low conf
76
Emil MoralesSub-Batch CLAD · SS · A+· PIX 11· closes Oct 8
11%
Beyond 2026Low conf
77
Caden BodineSub-Batch CTB · C · AA· PIX 9· closes Oct 8
9%
Beyond 2026Low conf
78
Nathan FlewellingSub-Batch CTB · C · A+· PIX 9· closes Oct 8
9%
Beyond 2026Low conf
79
Sebastian WalcottSub-Batch BTEX · SS/3B · AA· PIX 5· closes Sep 9
5%
Beyond 2026Low conf

Every number is locked at its run date and scored when its window closes. Resolved players move to the calibration log. ECD is a projected call-up window, not a graded prediction. ECD run record · refreshed 2026-08-06.

Resolved · June 18, 2026 · Sub-Batch A
First Cohort Results
Full calibration log
28
Prospects scored
14
Reached the majors
0.269
Raw Brier score
0.148
Corrected on v0.5

Every March 20 prediction resolved on June 18 and sits on the open log. The model ranked all 28 in the right order. See the full breakdown.

Model v0.5 · Three Cohorts · Public Track Record
Calibration Checkpoints
Full log
April 9, 2026
PPI Deadline
PPI window closes. Downgrade any PPI-High player not on an MLB roster. Flags: Emerson, Clark, White.
01
May 1, 2026
Week 6 - Svc Time
First service time windows unlock. Players to reassess: Miller, Benge, Basallo, Veen, Messick, Williams.
02
May 29, 2026
Week 10
Majority of service time windows resolved. Reassess Condon and remaining Pathway A predictions.
03
June 18, 2026 · Complete
90-Day Resolution
Done. Fourteen reached the majors and the model ranked all 28 in order. See the full results and what changes next.
✓

MLB Prospect Call-Up Predictions: How the Model Works

Most prospect coverage focuses on who a player is. Very little answers when they arrive. MKDC Baseball is built around a single question: when will an MLB prospect get called up, and why?

The Call-Up Probability Engine evaluates every tracked prospect across 13 quantifiable features: level proximity, age relative to league, 30-day performance, 40-man roster status, organizational promotion history, positional scarcity, service time considerations, and more. These inputs generate a CUP score (Call-Up Probability within 90 days) and an ECD (Estimated Call-Up Date) via one of three structured pathways.

Why timing is predictable

MLB promotions are not random. Service time mechanics create calendar-driven windows. Organizational behavior is quantifiable. Injuries create immediate openings. The model integrates all three to estimate timing, not just readiness.

What makes this different

Every output is locked and timestamped before outcomes are known. The June 18, 2026 calibration checkpoint is a hard public test. No retroactive adjustments. The model is scored on a Brier score against binary outcomes.

Prospect analysis → How the model works → Baseball metrics explained → How orgs handle prospects →
Four-Stage Pipeline · Model v0.5
How the Engine Works
Full methodology
01
13 Feature Inputs
Level proximity, age vs. league avg, 30-day performance stats, 40-man status, org opportunity, options remaining, position scarcity, performance trend, spring signal, prospect tier, Rule 5 flag, and PPI draft-pick incentive. All sourced from public data at evaluation date.
Stage 1–2
02
CUS Score 0–100
All feature scores are summed and normalized to a 0–100 Composite Upward Score. No post-hoc weighting. Weights are baked into defined scoring ranges. Locked at run date.
Stage 3
03
CUP Probability
CUS converts to a Call-Up Probability (CUP), then three multipliers are applied in sequence: org promotion behavior, positional base rate, and service time suppression. CUP is the final number you see in the leaderboard.
Stage 3
04
ECD Engine
CUP converts to an Estimated Call-Up Date (ECD) through one of three pathways: service time windows (tight range), opportunity or injury (medium range), or performance trajectory (wide range). Each pathway carries a confidence tier.
Stage 4 · v0.5