Call-Up Probability Engine  ·  Model v0.4  ·  Sub-Batch A  ·  2026

Who Gets
Called Up
Next.

A structured probabilistic model estimating MLB call-up timing — not talent, not upside. When. 27 prospects tracked across 4 tiers using 12 quantifiable features, 30 org coefficients, and a 3-pathway Estimated Call-Up Date engine.

See the Leaderboard How it works
MKDC Baseball
27
Players Tracked
12×
Model Features
30+
Org Coefficients
90d
Forecast Window
3
ECD Pathways
Run: March 20, 2026 · Model v0.4 · Calibration: June 18, 2026
PPI DEADLINE: APRIL 9, 2026 — Emerson (SEA), Clark (DET), White (MIA) flagged for downgrade. Any PPI-High player not on an MLB roster by Apr 9 loses org incentive permanently.
Resolved · Opening Day 2026
Active MLB
4 Players · CUP Resolved
Sub-Batch A · March 20, 2026 · Model v0.4 · 90-Day Window
CUP Leaderboard
Full calibration log →
Model v0.4 · Sub-Batch A · Public Track Record
Calibration Checkpoints
Full log →
April 9, 2026
PPI Deadline
PPI window closes. Downgrade any PPI-High player not on an MLB roster. Flags: Emerson, Clark, White.
01
May 1, 2026
Week 6 — Svc Time
First service time suppression windows unlock. Reassess: Miller, Benge, Basallo, Veen, Messick, Williams.
02
May 29, 2026
Week 10
Majority of service time windows resolved. Reassess Bazzana, Condon. Most Pathway A outcomes determined.
03
June 18, 2026
90-Day Resolution
Binary outcomes resolved for all March 20 evaluations. Brier score calculated. First public calibration data point.
04
Four-Stage Pipeline · Model v0.4
How the Engine Works
Full methodology →
01
⚙️
12 Feature Inputs
Level proximity, age vs. league avg, 30-day performance stats, 40-man status, org opportunity, options remaining, position scarcity, performance trend, spring signal, prospect tier, and Rule 5 flag. All sourced from public data at evaluation date.
Stage 1–2
02
📊
CUS Score 0–100
All feature scores are summed and normalized to a 0–100 Composite Upward Score. No post-hoc weighting. Weights are baked into defined scoring ranges. Immutable at run date.
Stage 3
03
🎯
CUP Probability
CUS maps to a base call-up probability. Three sequential multipliers are then applied: Org Coefficient (30 orgs), Positional Base Rate, and Service Time Suppression — the most impactful force in the model.
Stage 3
04
📅
ECD Engine
CUP converts to an Estimated Call-Up Date via Pathway A (service time, calendar-driven, ±7d), B (injury/opportunity, ±21d), or C (performance unlock, ±45d). Each carries a confidence tier.
Stage 4 · v0.4