Call-Up Probability Engine  ·  Model v0.4  ·  Sub-Batch A  ·  2026

Who Gets
Called Up
Next.

One question: when does this player get called up? Not talent. Not upside. Timing. 27 prospects tracked using 12 quantifiable features, 30 org coefficients, and a 3-pathway call-up date engine.

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MKDC Baseball
27
Players Tracked
12×
Model Features
30+
Org Coefficients
90d
Forecast Window
3
ECD Pathways
Run: March 20, 2026 · Model v0.4 · Calibration: June 18, 2026
PPI DEADLINE: APRIL 9, 2026 - Emerson (SEA), Clark (DET), White (MIA) flagged for downgrade. Any PPI-High player not on an MLB roster by Apr 9 loses org incentive permanently.
Resolved · Opening Day 2026
Active MLB
4 Players · CUP Resolved
Sub-Batch A · March 20, 2026 · Model v0.4 · 90-Day Window
CUP Leaderboard
Full calibration log
Model v0.4 · Sub-Batch A · Public Track Record
Calibration Checkpoints
Full log
April 9, 2026
PPI Deadline
PPI window closes. Downgrade any PPI-High player not on an MLB roster. Flags: Emerson, Clark, White.
01
May 1, 2026
Week 6 - Svc Time
First service time windows unlock. Players to reassess: Miller, Benge, Basallo, Veen, Messick, Williams.
02
May 29, 2026
Week 10
Majority of service time windows resolved. Reassess Condon and remaining Pathway A predictions.
03
June 18, 2026
90-Day Resolution
All March 20 predictions resolved to binary outcomes. Brier score calculated. First public accuracy data point.
04
Weekly Update · Free

Know Before
It Happens.

The model scores call-up probability before the season starts. The newsletter tracks what changes week by week, new injuries, roster moves, PPI updates, and CUP revisions, in time to actually matter.

  • Weekly CUP updates on every open player
  • Org injury news that changes the timeline
  • PPI deadline tracking and formal downgrade notices
  • Calibration notes when the model revises a probability
  • Sub-Batch B launch notice when it runs
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Outputs are model-generated, not picks.

MLB Prospect Call-Up Predictions: How the Model Works

Most prospect coverage focuses on who a player is. Very little answers when they arrive. MKDC Baseball is built around a single question: when will an MLB prospect get called up, and why?

The Call-Up Probability Engine evaluates every tracked prospect across 12 quantifiable features: level proximity, age relative to league, 30-day performance, 40-man roster status, organizational promotion history, positional scarcity, service time considerations, and more. These inputs generate a CUP score (Call-Up Probability within 90 days) and an ECD (Estimated Call-Up Date) via one of three structured pathways.

Why timing is predictable

MLB promotions are not random. Service time mechanics create calendar-driven windows. Organizational behavior is quantifiable. Injuries create immediate openings. The model integrates all three to estimate timing, not just readiness.

What makes this different

Every output is logged publicly before outcomes are known. The June 18, 2026 calibration checkpoint is a hard public test. No retroactive adjustments. The model is scored on a Brier score against binary outcomes.

Prospect analysis → How the model works → Baseball metrics explained → How orgs handle prospects →
Four-Stage Pipeline · Model v0.4
How the Engine Works
Full methodology
01
⚙️
12 Feature Inputs
Level proximity, age vs. league avg, 30-day performance stats, 40-man status, org opportunity, options remaining, position scarcity, performance trend, spring signal, prospect tier, and Rule 5 flag. All sourced from public data at evaluation date.
Stage 1–2
02
📊
CUS Score 0–100
All feature scores are summed and normalized to a 0–100 Composite Upward Score. No post-hoc weighting. Weights are baked into defined scoring ranges. Immutable at run date.
Stage 3
03
🎯
CUP Probability
CUS converts to a Call-Up Probability (CUP), then three multipliers are applied in sequence: org promotion behavior, positional base rate, and service time suppression. CUP is the final number you see in the leaderboard.
Stage 3
04
📅
ECD Engine
CUP converts to an Estimated Call-Up Date (ECD) through one of three pathways: service time windows (tight range), opportunity or injury (medium range), or performance trajectory (wide range). Each pathway carries a confidence tier.
Stage 4 · v0.4