Public Track Record · Model v0.4 · Sub-Batch A

Calibration
Log

Every prediction from the March 20, 2026 batch is logged here publicly and permanently before any outcomes resolve. The Brier score is calculated on June 18, 2026. Misses are logged alongside hits, no exceptions.

Model Integrity Statement
All outputs on this page were generated on March 20, 2026 using model v0.4. They are immutable, no prediction is ever edited retroactively. This page exists because calibration transparency is the only honest way to build trust in a probabilistic model. If the model is wrong, it will say so here.
Mar 20, 2026
Run Date
v0.4
Model Version
27
Players Evaluated
Sub-Batch A
Batch ID
Jun 18, 2026
90-Day Resolution
Pending
Brier Score
Apr 9 Checkpoint
PPI deadline final accounting. Preserved: Wetherholt, Benge, Basallo, DeLauter, Early, McGonigle (all on MLB rosters). Griffin preserved, extension signed Apr 8, after his Apr 2 debut. Downgraded: Ritchie (ATL), Ford (WSH), Tolle (BOS). Already None: Emerson (extension before debut), Yesavage (IL). McLean (NYM) eligibility pending verification.

Resolved, Active MLB

Opening Day 2026 + post-OD promotions
Week 1 · Mar 28
Basallo resolved YES: Made Baltimore’s Opening Day roster alongside Benge. Crawford (SEA) on 10-day IL: Emerson call-up window upgraded. Griffin debuted Triple-A Indianapolis: 1-for-3, walk, SB. Bazzana began Triple-A Columbus. Full Week 1 update →
Week 3 · Apr 12
PPI deadline passed Apr 9. Griffin (PIT) extension signed Apr 8, after debut, PPI preserved. Ritchie (ATL), Tolle (BOS), Ford (WSH) downgraded to None. Tolle CUP revised to 28% ↑ on Oviedo IL. Miller CUP revised to 10% ↓, no 2026 game action, no timetable. Full Week 3 update →
Player Org / Pos CUP ECD (Mar 20) Called Up Outcome
JJ Wetherholt
Carry-forward · Pipeline #5 · OD Starter
 STL 2B
~50%
 Mar 26 Mar 26 ✓ On ECD
Nolan McLean
Pipeline #6 · OD No. 2 Starter · PPI: Check
 NYM SP
ACTIVE
 Mar 26 Mar 26 ✓ On ECD
Andrew Painter
Pipeline #28 · TJS return · PHI No. 5 starter
 PHI SP
ACTIVE
 Mar 31 Mar 31 ✓ On ECD
Chase DeLauter
Pipeline #46 · OD Bench/Platoon
 CLE OF
ACTIVE
 Mar 26 Mar 26 ✓ On ECD
Carson Benge
Pipeline #40 · Spring .406/.972 · OD roster over Tauchman
 NYM OF
38%
 Apr 10 Mar 26 ✓ 15d early
Samuel Basallo
Pipeline #8 · Retained rookie eligibility · OD roster
 BAL C
22%
 Apr 16 Mar 26 ✓ 21d early
Konnor Griffin
Carry-forward · Pipeline #1 · $140M extension signed
 PIT SS
34%
 Apr 17 Apr 4 ✓ 13d early
Parker Messick
Pipeline #95 · Won OD rotation spot · PPI ineligible
 CLE SP
23%
 Apr 16 Mar 26 ✓ OD rotation

High CUP, April / May Window

CUP ≥22% · Pending resolution
Player Org / Pos CUP ECD Mid ECD Range Conf Status Outcome
Travis Bazzana
CLE · Called up Apr 27, 16 days before ECD mid · MLB debut Apr 28
 CLE 2B
35%
 May 14
Apr 30 – Jun 4
 ► High YES ✓ 16d early
Zac Veen
COL · On 40-man · 1.02 org coeff
 COL OF
28%
 Apr 16
Apr 9 – Apr 30
 ► High Pending Pending
Thomas White
MIA · Oblique injury · PPI window likely forfeited
 MIA SP
27%
 May 7
Apr 9 – Apr 30
 ◈ Med Pending Pending
Colt Emerson
SEA · Extension signed · PPI None (forfeited)
 SEA SS
24%
 Apr 9
Mar 26 – May 1
 ► High Pending Pending
Jett Williams
MIL · PPI retained from NYM trade · 40-man needed
 MIL SS/OF
24%
 Apr 16
Apr 9 – Apr 30
 ► High Pending Pending
Konnor Griffin ⊕
PIT · Carry-forward · No viable MLB SS alt
 PIT SS
34%
 Apr 17
Apr 3 – May 29
 ◈ Med Active MLB ✓ Resolved
Aidan Miller
PHI · Back injury ongoing · No 2026 game action · CUP revised ↓
 PHI SS/3B
10%
 Jun 1
May – Jun
 ○ Low Injured Pending
Charlie Condon ⊕
COL · Carry-forward · Svc time confirmed Mar 19
 COL 1B
22%
 Jun 10
May 27 – Jul 1
 ◈ Med Pending Pending

Medium CUP, Summer Window

CUP 13–21% · Pending resolution
Player Org / Pos CUP ECD Mid ECD Range Conf Status Outcome
Max Clark
DET · Triple-A Toledo · PPI downgraded Apr 9 · Not on 40-man
 DET OF
15%
 Jun 24
Jun 3 – Jul 24
 ○ Low Pending Pending
Ryan Sloan
SEA · Double-A Arkansas · Skipped High-A
 SEA SP
15%
 Jun 24
May 25 – Jul 24
 ○ Low Pending Pending
Kade Anderson
SEA · Double-A Arkansas · Pro debut 2026
 SEA SP
15%
 Jul 29
Jul 8 – Aug 28
 ○ Low Pending Pending
Nate George
BAL · A+ · Fast-rising · Needs AA first
 BAL OF
14%
 Jul 29
Jul 8 – Aug 28
 ○ Low Pending Pending
Luis Peña
MIL · AA · 19 yrs old · Developmental gap
 MIL INF
14%
 Jul 29
Jul 8 – Aug 28
 ○ Low Pending Pending
Cooper Pratt
MIL · AA · Made/Peña/Williams ahead
 MIL SS
14%
 Jul 29
Jul 8 – Aug 28
 ○ Low Pending Pending
Theo Gillen
TBR · High-A Bowling Green · 0.85 org coeff
 TBR OF
13%
 Jul 29
Jul 8 – Aug 28
 ○ Low Pending Pending

IL / Below Threshold

CUP <10% · No viable 90-day window at run date
Player Org / Pos CUP Status Note
Trey Yesavage
TOR · Right shoulder impingement · Rehab started
 TOR SP
<8%
 15-day IL PPI forfeited
Arjun Nimmala
TOR · A+ · 2028 ETA per Pipeline
 TOR SS
~7%
 Below threshold No 90d window
Josue De Paula
LAD · AA · Tucker/Pages/Hernandez logjam
 LAD OF
~7%
 Below threshold LAD blocker
Zyhir Hope
LAD · AA · Same org structural barrier
 LAD OF
~7%
 Below threshold LAD blocker
Xavier Isaac
TBR · A+ · Brain surgery return · TBR patience
 TBR 1B
~6%
 Below threshold TBR + 1B rate
Accuracy Metrics

Calculated June 18, 2026

All 27 binary outcomes (1 = MLB appearance within 90 days, 0 = no appearance) resolved and logged on June 18. This section updates once and is then permanent. Misses are logged alongside hits.
Brier Score
Pending Jun 18
Lower = better. Target: improve vs. naive baseline.
ECD Accuracy
Pending Jun 18
% of call-ups within Early–Late ECD window. Target: >65%.
Band Accuracy
Pending Jun 18
% in each CUS band actually called up. Validates CUS→CUP mapping.