PIX is a 0 to 100 index of how much promotion pressure sits on an MLB prospect right now. Higher means more forces are pushing the team to call the player up soon. It moves only when a real, sourced event happens, like an injury to the player ahead of him or a promotion to Triple-A.

Is PIX a probability that a prospect gets called up?

No. PIX is a directional index, not a probability. The scored probability is CUP, which MKDC publishes in batch runs and grades in public every 90 days on the calibration log.

Why did a player's PIX score change?

Every change is a logged event with a fixed point value and a source link, shown in the public event ledger on the board. If nothing happens, a player's score slowly drifts back toward his model baseline.

How often does the PIX board update?

The full board publishes every Sunday. Big moves, like a trade or an injury above a tracked prospect, post the same day they happen.

Live Board · Updated 2026-08-06 · Sunday cadence

Whose Phone Rings Next.

The PIX Board tracks promotion pressure on every Top 100 prospect, live. One number per player. It starts from the scored model and moves only on logged, sourced events. Quiet weeks pull it back toward the model. Every point move is on the ledger.

The honest label

PIX is a live directional index derived from the MKDC model. It is not a scored CUP run and is not used for calibration. The scored model grades itself every 90 days on the calibration log.

Players tracked

Top PIX · Thomas White

Movers this week

Events on the ledger

The top of the board

Thomas White

MIA · LHP · AAA

Left shoulder capsular sprain, on MiLB IL since May 20, out 12-16 weeks, return mid-Aug to Sept

Charlie Condon

COL · 1B/OF · AAA

scored CUP 48 from 2026-06-11 run

Angel Genao

CLE · SS · AAA

level-implied tier init (AAA -> 22, v0.5 table)

Movers this week

+4 → 23

Zyhir Hope · DET

Traded LAD to DET in the Tarik Skubal deal, Aug 1 2026. Leaves the most crowded OF system in baseball (0.88 org coeff, nine of LAD's top 20 prospects are OF) for a Detroit club that just moved its ace. Slashed .293/.369/.530 with 23 HR in his first full Double-A season.

Latest from the board

The write-ups behind the numbers. New pieces land here every week, driven by whoever the board says matters next.

DET · Deadline aftermath

The Trade That Proved the Point

Hope traded, Clark debuted, both inside 48 hours. One thesis confirmed, one prediction resolved at 33 percent, and a new logjam forming in Detroit.

2026-08-06

Research · Deadline analysis

Two Ways to Be Blocked: The Dodgers, the Rays, and the Deadline

Tibbs is hitting .293 with 21 homers and has nowhere to play. Gillen is the No. 9 prospect in baseball in the slowest system. Only one of those has a deadline fix.

2026-07-30

Research · Board analysis

Cleveland Is Promoting Prospects in Waves

Three Guardians surged the same week: Genao +23, Velazquez +21, Doughty +17. One org, one lever, and why the board lights up in clusters.

2026-07-21

Research · Model documentation

Inside v0.5: How the MKDC Model Actually Runs

Every feature, every multiplier, the recalibration story, five known problems, and the v1.0 build plan. The whole model, documented in public.

2026-07-16

MIN · MIA · Injury watch

One Hot Week From Minnesota. Then the IL.

Culpepper drops 12 on a recurring glute strain, and White's 62 percent, the biggest number on the board, may not beat September 9.

2026-07-14

Research · Prospect outcomes

What a Top 100 Ranking Is Actually Worth

91% of Top 100 prospects reach the majors versus 17.6% of all draftees. The odds by rank, the WAR curve, and the pitcher tax, on 36 years of data.

2026-07-14

The full board

Tap a column header to sort. Bands read top down: DOOR IS OPEN 75+, KNOCKING 55+, ON THE RADAR 35+, then building and developing. Gap is live PIX minus the locked baseline: a positive gap means the news is running ahead of the model. A prov tag means the player started from a level tier and has not been batch-scored yet. Hover a row for the initialization source.

#	Player	Band	Org	Lvl	PIX	7d	30d	Gap
1	Thomas White	ON THE RADAR	MIA	AAA	51	–	-11	-11
2	Charlie Condon	ON THE RADAR	COL	AAA	48	–	–	–
3	Angel Genao	ON THE RADAR	CLE	AAA	45	–	+23	–
4	Lazaro Montes	ON THE RADAR	SEA	AAA	44	–	+32	–
5	Carlos Lagrange	ON THE RADAR	NYY	AAA	38	–	+16	–
6	Hagen Smith	BUILDING A CASE	CWS	AAA	34	–	-11	-11
7	Jett Williams	BUILDING A CASE	MIL	AAA	33	–	+9	–
8	Owen Caissie	BUILDING A CASE	MIA	AAA	33	–	–	–
9	Ralphy Velazquez	BUILDING A CASE	CLE	AAA	33	–	+21	–
10	Karson Milbrandt	BUILDING A CASE	MIA	AAA	32	–	+10	–
11	Theo Gillen	BUILDING A CASE	TB	AA	31	–	+16	+3
12	James Tibbs III	BUILDING A CASE	LAD	AAA	29	–	+7	–
13	Alfredo Duno	BUILDING A CASE	CIN	AA	28	–	+16	–
14	Harry Ford	BUILDING A CASE	WSH	AAA	28	–	+8	–
15	Kade Anderson	BUILDING A CASE	SEA	AA	26	–	-1	+3
16	Ryan Sloan	BUILDING A CASE	SEA	AA	23	–	–	–
17	Walker Jenkins	BUILDING A CASE	MIN	AAA	23	–	–	–
18	Zyhir Hope	BUILDING A CASE	DET	AA	23	+4	+11	+4
19	Anthony Eyanson	BUILDING A CASE	BOS	AA	22	–	+10	–
20	Braylon Doughty	BUILDING A CASE	CLE	AA	22	–	+17	–
21	Caleb Bonemer	BUILDING A CASE	CWS	AA	22	–	+10	–
22	Devin Fitz-Gerald	BUILDING A CASE	WSH	AA	22	–	+10	–
23	Edward Florentino	BUILDING A CASE	PIT	A+	22	–	+17	–
24	Eli Willits	BUILDING A CASE	WSH	A+	22	–	+17	–
25	Elmer Rodríguezprov	BUILDING A CASE	NYY	AAA	22	–	–	–
26	Emmanuel Rodriguez	BUILDING A CASE	MIN	AAA	22	–	-11	-11
27	Franklin Arias	BUILDING A CASE	BOS	AA	22	–	–	–
28	Gage Wood	BUILDING A CASE	PHI	AA	22	–	+10	–
29	JR Ritchieprov	BUILDING A CASE	ATL	AAA	22	–	–	–
30	Jamie Arnold	BUILDING A CASE	ATH	AA	22	–	+10	–
31	Jefferson Rojas	BUILDING A CASE	CHC	AA	22	–	+10	–
32	Jesus Made	BUILDING A CASE	MIL	AA	22	–	+10	–
33	Jonah Tongprov	BUILDING A CASE	NYM	AAA	22	–	–	–
34	Josh Adamczewski	BUILDING A CASE	MIL	AA	22	–	+10	–
35	Joshua Baez	BUILDING A CASE	STL	AAA	22	–	+10	–
36	Josue De Paula	BUILDING A CASE	LAD	AA	22	–	–	–
37	Kaelen Culpepper	BUILDING A CASE	MIN	AAA	22	–	-11	-11
38	Leo De Vries	BUILDING A CASE	ATH	AA	22	–	+10	–
39	Liam Doyle	BUILDING A CASE	STL	AA	22	–	+10	–
40	Logan Hendersonprov	BUILDING A CASE	MIL	AAA	22	–	–	–
41	Luis Peña	BUILDING A CASE	MIL	A+	22	–	+17	–
42	Nolan Perry	BUILDING A CASE	TOR	AA	22	–	+10	–
43	Michael Arroyo	BUILDING A CASE	SEA	AAA	21	–	+9	–
44	Christian Zazueta	DEVELOPING	LAD	AA	19	–	+7	–
45	Mike Sirota	DEVELOPING	LAD	AA	19	–	+3	–
46	Rainiel Rodriguez	DEVELOPING	STL	AA	19	–	+7	–
47	River Ryanprov	DEVELOPING	DET	AAA	14	+3	-8	-8
48	Aiva Arquette	DEVELOPING	MIA	AA	13	–	-9	-9
49	Aidan Miller	DEVELOPING	PHI	AAA	12	–	+1	-10
50	Billy Carlson	DEVELOPING	CWS	A	12	–	–	–
51	Bryce Rainer	DEVELOPING	DET	A+	12	–	+7	–
52	Caden Scarborough	DEVELOPING	TEX	A+	12	–	+7	–
53	Cam Caminiti	DEVELOPING	ATL	A+	12	–	+7	–
54	Dax Kilby	DEVELOPING	NYY	A	12	–	+7	–
55	Eduardo Tait	DEVELOPING	MIN	A+	12	–	–	–
56	Eric Hartman	DEVELOPING	ATL	A+	12	–	–	–
57	Felnin Celesten	DEVELOPING	SEA	A+	12	–	+7	–
58	Francisco Renteria	DEVELOPING	PHI	ROK	12	–	+7	–
59	Ike Irish	DEVELOPING	BAL	A+	12	–	+7	–
60	Jaxon Wiggins	DEVELOPING	CHC	A+	12	–	–	–
61	Jhonny Level	DEVELOPING	SF	A+	12	–	+7	–
62	JoJo Parker	DEVELOPING	TOR	A	12	–	+7	–
63	Jonny Farmelo	DEVELOPING	SEA	A+	12	–	+7	–
64	Josh Hammond	DEVELOPING	KC	A	12	–	+7	–
65	Josiah Hartshorn	DEVELOPING	CHC	A+	12	–	–	–
66	Josuar Gonzalez	DEVELOPING	SF	ROK	12	–	–	–
67	Josue Briceño	DEVELOPING	DET	A	12	–	+7	–
68	Justin Gonzales	DEVELOPING	BOS	A+	12	–	+7	–
69	Kayson Cunningham	DEVELOPING	ARI	A+	12	–	+7	–
70	Kendry Chourio	DEVELOPING	KC	A+	12	–	+7	–
71	Kevin Alvarez	DEVELOPING	HOU	A	12	–	+7	–
72	Luis Hernandez	DEVELOPING	SF	ROK	12	–	–	–
73	Roldy Brito	DEVELOPING	COL	A	12	–	+7	–
74	Ronny Cruz	DEVELOPING	WSH	A+	12	–	+7	–
75	Seth Hernandez	DEVELOPING	PIT	A+	12	–	–	–
76	Steele Hall	DEVELOPING	CIN	ROK	12	–	+7	–
77	Tyler Bremner	DEVELOPING	LAA	A+	12	–	+7	–
78	Xavier Neyens	DEVELOPING	HOU	A	12	–	+7	–
79	Charles Davalan	DEVELOPING	LAD	A+	11	–	+6	–
80	Eduardo Quintero	DEVELOPING	LAD	A+	11	–	+6	–
81	Emil Morales	DEVELOPING	LAD	A+	11	–	+6	–
82	George Lombard Jr.prov	DEVELOPING	NYY	AAA	11	–	-11	-11
83	Seaver Kingprov	DEVELOPING	WSH	AAA	11	–	-11	-11
84	Caden Bodine	DEVELOPING	TB	AA	9	–	+4	–
85	Nathan Flewelling	DEVELOPING	TB	A+	9	–	+4	–
86	Sebastian Walcott	DEVELOPING	TEX	AA	5	–	–	–
87	Arjun Nimmalaprov	DEVELOPING	TOR	A	4	–	-1	-1
88	Ethan Hollidayprov	DEVELOPING	COL	A	4	–	-1	-1
89	Ethan Salasprov	DEVELOPING	SD	AA	4	–	-8	-8
90	Jarlin Susanaprov	DEVELOPING	WSH	AA	4	–	-8	-8
91	Nate Georgeprov	DEVELOPING	BAL	A+	4	–	-1	-1
92	Travis Sykoraprov	DEVELOPING	WSH	AA	4	–	-8	-8

PIX in plain English

⚖️

It starts at the model

Every player begins at the number our scored model gave him. Players the batch has not scored yet start at their level tier, and the board says so. Every starting point is logged.

Baseline

⚡

Only news moves it

The veteran ahead of him gets hurt: up. Promoted to Triple-A: up. He lands on the IL himself: down. Every move has a fixed point value, a date, and a source link in the open ledger, scaled by how close he is. Nobody nudges a number on a feeling.

Fixed values · sourced

⌛

Silence bleeds it back

When nothing happens, the number drifts back toward the model baseline. A rumor that never turns into anything fades on its own. A high PIX that stays high means real forces are stacking, not hype.

Reversion

What moves the number

The complete menu, shown at full Triple-A value. Proximity scales everything: the same event counts 0.75x at Double-A, 0.5x in A-ball, and 0.25x in complex leagues, because an opening matters most to the player who can be on a flight tomorrow. Stacking is capped at ±15 a day and ±25 a week, and the score stays between 3 and 95.

Pressure up

Blocker to 60-day IL+10

Blocker traded or cut+8

Added to 40-man roster+8

Promoted to Triple-A+7

Blocker to 15-day IL+6

Beat writer promotion report+5

PPI window in play+5

Hot 14-day stretch+4

Promoted to Double-A+4

Pre-debut extension+4

September roster expansion+4

Team enters contention+3

Pressure down

Prospect hits the IL-12

Demoted a level-10

Roster crunch goes against him-7

Blocker returns from IL-6

Org commits to the blocker-5

PPI window closes empty-5

Cold 14-day stretch-4

Traded (situational, noted)±5

The ledger, latest 25

Every point move on this board comes from one of these entries. The full ledger is public and hash-chained, so any edit to a closed entry snaps the chain.

Date	Player	Event	Move	Source
2026-08-01	River Ryan	Traded to new org (manual value, bounded ±5, note required)	+3 → 14	baseballamerica.com
2026-08-01	Zyhir Hope	Traded to new org (manual value, bounded ±5, note required)	+4 → 23	baseballamerica.com
2026-07-27	Theo Gillen	Top-decile 14-day stretch at level	+3 → 31	tjstats.ca
2026-07-01	Aiva Arquette	Prospect hits IL	-9 → 13	mlb.com
2026-07-07	Kaelen Culpepper	Prospect hits IL	-12 → 21	rotowire.com
2026-07-06	Michael Arroyo	Promoted to Triple-A	+5 → 17	sports.mynorthwest.com
2026-07-06	Lazaro Montes	Promoted to Triple-A	+5 → 17	sports.mynorthwest.com
2026-07-10	Seaver King	Prospect hits IL	-12 → 10	nbcsports.com
2026-07-07	Nate George	Prospect hits IL	-2 → 3	mlb.com
2026-07-07	Arjun Nimmala	Prospect hits IL	-2 → 3	mlb.com
2026-07-07	Ethan Holliday	Prospect hits IL	-2 → 3	mlb.com
2026-07-07	Jarlin Susana	Prospect hits IL	-9 → 3	mlb.com
2026-07-07	Travis Sykora	Prospect hits IL	-9 → 3	mlb.com
2026-07-07	Ethan Salas	Prospect hits IL	-9 → 3	mlb.com
2026-07-07	George Lombard Jr.	Prospect hits IL	-12 → 10	mlb.com
2026-07-07	River Ryan	Prospect hits IL	-12 → 10	mlb.com
2026-07-07	Emmanuel Rodriguez	Prospect hits IL	-12 → 21	mlb.com
2026-07-07	Hagen Smith	Prospect hits IL	-12 → 33	mlb.com
2026-07-07	Thomas White	Prospect hits IL	-12 → 50	mlb.com
2026-07-04	Kade Anderson	Top-decile 14-day stretch at level	+4 → 27	mlb.com
2026-07-04	Mike Sirota	Top-decile 14-day stretch at level	+4 → 16	mlb.com
2026-06-15	Luis Lara	Pre-debut extension signed (amended from -6, see notes)	+4 → 26	mlb.com
2026-06-26	Theo Gillen	Promoted to Double-A	+4 → 16	mlb.com
2026-06-05	Aidan Miller	Prospect hits IL	-12 → 10	mkdcbaseball.com

Receipts

When a player debuts, the board shows its work and he exits.

Max Clark · DET

Debut 2026-08-01 · Scored CUP: 33% on 2026-07-10

30d prior 22 → 7d prior 22 → debut 33

Ryan Waldschmidt · ARI

Debut 2026-05-08 · Scored CUP: not batch-scored

30d prior 22 → 7d prior 22 → debut 22

Luis Lara · MIL

Debut 2026-07-07 · Scored CUP: not batch-scored

30d prior 22 → 7d prior 26 → debut 25

Questions people ask

What is a PIX score?

A 0 to 100 index of how much promotion pressure sits on a prospect right now. Higher means more forces are pushing the team to call him up soon.

Is PIX a probability?

No. PIX is directional. The scored probability is CUP, published in batch runs and graded in public every 90 days on the calibration log.

Why did a score change?

Every change is a logged event with a fixed point value and a source link, in the ledger above. No event, no change, except the slow drift back to baseline.

How often does it update?

Full board every Sunday. Big moves post the same day they happen.