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Live Board · Updated 2026-09-09 · Sunday cadence

Whose Phone Rings Next.

The PIX Board tracks promotion pressure on every Top 100 prospect, live. One number per player. It starts from the scored model and moves only on logged, sourced events. Quiet weeks pull it back toward the model. Every point move is on the ledger.

The honest label
PIX is a live directional index derived from the MKDC model. It is not a scored CUP run and is not used for calibration. The scored model grades itself every 90 days on the calibration log.
75
Players tracked
44
Top PIX · Lazaro Montes
1
Movers this week
26
Events on the ledger

The top of the board

01
Lazaro Montes
SEA · OF · AAA
44
Promoted to Tacoma with Arroyo; .919 OPS, 25 HR at AA
02
Jett Williams
MIL · 3B/SS · AAA
33
scored CUP 24 from 2026-03-20 run
03
Ralphy Velazquez
CLE · 1B/OF · AAA
33
level-implied tier init (? -> 12, v0.5 table)

Movers this week

-12 → 26
Carlos Lagrange · NYY
Placed on the seven-day IL at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre with a shoulder injury. Was being built up as a bullpen option for the big league club later this year.

Latest from the board

The write-ups behind the numbers. New pieces land here every week, driven by whoever the board says matters next.

Calibration · Sub-Batch B
v0.5 Did Not Beat the Baseline
Five of fourteen reached the majors. Brier 0.2375 against a naive 0.2296. A failed checkpoint, published in full with every miss named.
2026-09-09
Call-up wave · Five receipts
Six Debuts in Nineteen Days
Clark, Lombard, Genao, Culpepper, Smith and Baez all reached the majors. The model's bands held their order perfectly, and the 62 percent is going to miss.
2026-08-20
DET · Deadline aftermath
The Trade That Proved the Point
Hope traded, Clark debuted, both inside 48 hours. One thesis confirmed, one prediction resolved at 33 percent, and a new logjam forming in Detroit.
2026-08-06
Research · Deadline analysis
Two Ways to Be Blocked: The Dodgers, the Rays, and the Deadline
Tibbs is hitting .293 with 21 homers and has nowhere to play. Gillen is the No. 9 prospect in baseball in the slowest system. Only one of those has a deadline fix.
2026-07-30
Research · Board analysis
Cleveland Is Promoting Prospects in Waves
Three Guardians surged the same week: Genao +23, Velazquez +21, Doughty +17. One org, one lever, and why the board lights up in clusters.
2026-07-21
Research · Model documentation
Inside v0.5: How the MKDC Model Actually Runs
Every feature, every multiplier, the recalibration story, five known problems, and the v1.0 build plan. The whole model, documented in public.
2026-07-16

The full board

Tap a column header to sort. Bands read top down: DOOR IS OPEN 75+, KNOCKING 55+, ON THE RADAR 35+, then building and developing. Gap is live PIX minus the locked baseline: a positive gap means the news is running ahead of the model. A prov tag means the player started from a level tier and has not been batch-scored yet. Hover a row for the initialization source.

# Player Band Org Lvl PIX 7d 30d Gap Trend
1Lazaro MontesON THE RADARSEAAAA44–––
2Jett WilliamsBUILDING A CASEMILAAA33–––
3Ralphy VelazquezBUILDING A CASECLEAAA33–––
4Karson MilbrandtBUILDING A CASEMIAAAA32–––
5Theo GillenBUILDING A CASETBAA30-1-1+2
6James Tibbs IIIBUILDING A CASELADAAA29–––
7Alfredo DunoBUILDING A CASECINAA28–––
8Harry FordBUILDING A CASEWSHAAA28–––
9Carlos LagrangeBUILDING A CASENYYAAA26-12-12-12
10Anthony EyansonBUILDING A CASEBOSAA22–––
11Braylon DoughtyBUILDING A CASECLEAA22–––
12Caleb BonemerBUILDING A CASECWSAA22–––
13Devin Fitz-GeraldBUILDING A CASEWSHAA22–––
14Edward FlorentinoBUILDING A CASEPITA+22–––
15Eli WillitsBUILDING A CASEWSHA+22–––
16Elmer RodríguezprovBUILDING A CASENYYAAA22–––
17Gage WoodBUILDING A CASEPHIAA22–––
18JR RitchieprovBUILDING A CASEATLAAA22–––
19Jamie ArnoldBUILDING A CASEATHAA22–––
20Jefferson RojasBUILDING A CASECHCAA22–––
21Jesus MadeBUILDING A CASEMILAA22–––
22Jonah TongprovBUILDING A CASENYMAAA22–––
23Josh AdamczewskiBUILDING A CASEMILAA22–––
24Leo De VriesBUILDING A CASEATHAA22–––
25Liam DoyleBUILDING A CASESTLAA22–––
26Logan HendersonprovBUILDING A CASEMILAAA22–––
27Luis PeñaBUILDING A CASEMILA+22–––
28Nolan PerryBUILDING A CASETORAA22–––
29Zyhir HopeBUILDING A CASEDETAA22-1-1+3
30Michael ArroyoBUILDING A CASESEAAAA21–––
31Christian ZazuetaDEVELOPINGLADAA19–––
32Mike SirotaDEVELOPINGLADAA19–––
33Rainiel RodriguezDEVELOPINGSTLAA19–––
34River RyanprovDEVELOPINGDETAAA15+1+1-7
35Aidan MillerDEVELOPINGPHIAAA13+1+1-9
36Billy CarlsonDEVELOPINGCWSA12–––
37Bryce RainerDEVELOPINGDETA+12–––
38Caden ScarboroughDEVELOPINGTEXA+12–––
39Cam CaminitiDEVELOPINGATLA+12–––
40Dax KilbyDEVELOPINGNYYA12–––
41Eric HartmanDEVELOPINGATLA+12–––
42Felnin CelestenDEVELOPINGSEAA+12–––
43Francisco RenteriaDEVELOPINGPHIROK12–––
44Ike IrishDEVELOPINGBALA+12–––
45Jaxon WigginsDEVELOPINGCHCA+12–––
46Jhonny LevelDEVELOPINGSFA+12–––
47JoJo ParkerDEVELOPINGTORA12–––
48Jonny FarmeloDEVELOPINGSEAA+12–––
49Josh HammondDEVELOPINGKCA12–––
50Josiah HartshornDEVELOPINGCHCA+12–––
51Josuar GonzalezDEVELOPINGSFROK12–––
52Josue BriceñoDEVELOPINGDETA12–––
53Justin GonzalesDEVELOPINGBOSA+12–––
54Kayson CunninghamDEVELOPINGARIA+12–––
55Kendry ChourioDEVELOPINGKCA+12–––
56Kevin AlvarezDEVELOPINGHOUA12–––
57Luis HernandezDEVELOPINGSFROK12–––
58Roldy BritoDEVELOPINGCOLA12–––
59Ronny CruzDEVELOPINGWSHA+12–––
60Seaver KingprovDEVELOPINGWSHAAA12+1+1-10
61Seth HernandezDEVELOPINGPITA+12–––
62Steele HallDEVELOPINGCINROK12–––
63Tyler BremnerDEVELOPINGLAAA+12–––
64Xavier NeyensDEVELOPINGHOUA12–––
65Charles DavalanDEVELOPINGLADA+11–––
66Eduardo QuinteroDEVELOPINGLADA+11–––
67Emil MoralesDEVELOPINGLADA+11–––
68Caden BodineDEVELOPINGTBAA9–––
69Nathan FlewellingDEVELOPINGTBA+9–––
70Arjun NimmalaprovDEVELOPINGTORA5+1+1–
71Ethan HollidayprovDEVELOPINGCOLA5+1+1–
72Ethan SalasprovDEVELOPINGSDAA5+1+1-7
73Jarlin SusanaprovDEVELOPINGWSHAA5+1+1-7
74Nate GeorgeprovDEVELOPINGBALA+5+1+1–
75Travis SykoraprovDEVELOPINGWSHAA5+1+1-7

PIX in plain English

01
⚖️
It starts at the model
Every player begins at the number our scored model gave him. Players the batch has not scored yet start at their level tier, and the board says so. Every starting point is logged.
Baseline
02
⚡
Only news moves it
The veteran ahead of him gets hurt: up. Promoted to Triple-A: up. He lands on the IL himself: down. Every move has a fixed point value, a date, and a source link in the open ledger, scaled by how close he is. Nobody nudges a number on a feeling.
Fixed values · sourced
03
⌛
Silence bleeds it back
When nothing happens, the number drifts back toward the model baseline. A rumor that never turns into anything fades on its own. A high PIX that stays high means real forces are stacking, not hype.
Reversion

What moves the number

The complete menu, shown at full Triple-A value. Proximity scales everything: the same event counts 0.75x at Double-A, 0.5x in A-ball, and 0.25x in complex leagues, because an opening matters most to the player who can be on a flight tomorrow. Stacking is capped at ±15 a day and ±25 a week, and the score stays between 3 and 95.

Pressure up
Blocker to 60-day IL+10
Blocker traded or cut+8
Added to 40-man roster+8
Promoted to Triple-A+7
Blocker to 15-day IL+6
Beat writer promotion report+5
PPI window in play+5
Hot 14-day stretch+4
Promoted to Double-A+4
Pre-debut extension+4
September roster expansion+4
Team enters contention+3
Pressure down
Prospect hits the IL-12
Demoted a level-10
Roster crunch goes against him-7
Blocker returns from IL-6
Org commits to the blocker-5
PPI window closes empty-5
Cold 14-day stretch-4
Traded (situational, noted)±5

The ledger, latest 25

Every point move on this board comes from one of these entries. The full ledger is public and hash-chained, so any edit to a closed entry snaps the chain.

DatePlayerEventMoveSource
2026-08-14Carlos LagrangeProspect hits IL-12 → 26si.com
2026-08-12Thomas WhiteOrg publicly commits to blocker / signals patience-5 → 46mlb.com
2026-08-01River RyanTraded to new org (manual value, bounded ±5, note required)+3 → 14baseballamerica.com
2026-08-01Zyhir HopeTraded to new org (manual value, bounded ±5, note required)+4 → 23baseballamerica.com
2026-07-27Theo GillenTop-decile 14-day stretch at level+3 → 31tjstats.ca
2026-07-01Aiva ArquetteProspect hits IL-9 → 13mlb.com
2026-07-07Kaelen CulpepperProspect hits IL-12 → 21rotowire.com
2026-07-06Michael ArroyoPromoted to Triple-A+5 → 17sports.mynorthwest.com
2026-07-06Lazaro MontesPromoted to Triple-A+5 → 17sports.mynorthwest.com
2026-07-10Seaver KingProspect hits IL-12 → 10nbcsports.com
2026-07-07Nate GeorgeProspect hits IL-2 → 3mlb.com
2026-07-07Arjun NimmalaProspect hits IL-2 → 3mlb.com
2026-07-07Ethan HollidayProspect hits IL-2 → 3mlb.com
2026-07-07Jarlin SusanaProspect hits IL-9 → 3mlb.com
2026-07-07Travis SykoraProspect hits IL-9 → 3mlb.com
2026-07-07Ethan SalasProspect hits IL-9 → 3mlb.com
2026-07-07George Lombard Jr.Prospect hits IL-12 → 10mlb.com
2026-07-07River RyanProspect hits IL-12 → 10mlb.com
2026-07-07Emmanuel RodriguezProspect hits IL-12 → 21mlb.com
2026-07-07Hagen SmithProspect hits IL-12 → 33mlb.com
2026-07-07Thomas WhiteProspect hits IL-12 → 50mlb.com
2026-07-04Kade AndersonTop-decile 14-day stretch at level+4 → 27mlb.com
2026-07-04Mike SirotaTop-decile 14-day stretch at level+4 → 16mlb.com
2026-06-15Luis LaraPre-debut extension signed (amended from -6, see notes)+4 → 26mlb.com
2026-06-26Theo GillenPromoted to Double-A+4 → 16mlb.com

Receipts

When a player debuts, the board shows its work and he exits.

Joshua Baez · STL
Debut 2026-08-15 · Scored CUP: 22% on 2026-07-10
30d prior 12 → 7d prior 12 → debut 22
Hagen Smith · CWS
Debut 2026-08-09 · Scored CUP: 45% on 2026-06-11
30d prior 33 → 7d prior 34 → debut 34
Kaelen Culpepper · MIN
Debut 2026-08-07 · Scored CUP: 33% on 2026-06-11
30d prior 21 → 7d prior 22 → debut 22
Angel Genao · CLE
Debut 2026-08-05 · Scored CUP: 45% on 2026-07-10
30d prior 22 → 7d prior 22 → debut 45
George Lombard Jr. · NYY
Debut 2026-08-04 · Scored CUP: not batch-scored
30d prior 22 → 7d prior 11 → debut 11
Max Clark · DET
Debut 2026-08-01 · Scored CUP: 33% on 2026-07-10
30d prior 22 → 7d prior 22 → debut 33
Ryan Waldschmidt · ARI
Debut 2026-05-08 · Scored CUP: not batch-scored
30d prior 22 → 7d prior 22 → debut 22
Luis Lara · MIL
Debut 2026-07-07 · Scored CUP: not batch-scored
30d prior 22 → 7d prior 26 → debut 25

Questions people ask

What is a PIX score?
A 0 to 100 index of how much promotion pressure sits on a prospect right now. Higher means more forces are pushing the team to call him up soon.
Is PIX a probability?
No. PIX is directional. The scored probability is CUP, published in batch runs and graded in public every 90 days on the calibration log.
Why did a score change?
Every change is a logged event with a fixed point value and a source link, in the ledger above. No event, no change, except the slow drift back to baseline.
How often does it update?
Full board every Sunday. Big moves post the same day they happen.