Prospect
Analysis

Who swings hardest for their size and age? A new lens on public bat-tracking data, from the new MKDC research section.

Clark, Lombard, Genao, Culpepper, Smith and Baez all reached the majors in August. Five carried locked numbers, and the bands held their order exactly.

Zyhir Hope was traded and Max Clark debuted inside 48 hours. Our blocked-prospect thesis got tested in public, and Clark’s 33 percent resolved yes.

A .418 on-base run at Akron, a promotion to Columbus, and a 40-man spot already secured. The model has him at 45 percent with an August window.

The loudest bat in the Mariners system got the Tacoma call July 6. The model scores him at 44 percent, with Seattle’s own patience as the last obstacle.

Fifteen featured players plus a 50-player calibration tier. Genao and Montes lead at 45 and 44 percent. The window closes October 8.

The first cohort scored after the June 18 recalibration. Thomas White leads at 62 percent. Three Triple-A bats sit at 33. The window closes September 9.

Schultz, Tolle, and Ritchie all debut. None were Sub-Batch A. Bazzana finally homered. Jenkins finally homered. Hagen Smith ECD compresses to mid-May.

McGonigle $150M. Bazzana .222 at Triple-A. Veen optioned. Miller swings a bat. Four CUP changes this week.

April 9 deadline closed. Griffin’s $140M extension signed post-debut preserves the PPI pick. Tolle CUP rises to 28% on Oviedo IL. Miller CUP falls to 10%. Yesavage targeting late April return.

Konnor Griffin goes 1-for-4 with a double and RBI in his MLB debut. PIT wins 5-4. 10 prospects resolved YES in week 1. McGonigle calibration miss flagged. PPI deadline in 6 days.

The full Sub-Batch A leaderboard at Opening Day. Who made the roster, who went to Triple-A, and what the model said before the season started.

Basallo and Benge resolved YES on Opening Day. J.P. Crawford opened the season on the IL. Emerson’s PPI window is now the most live call-up watch in the batch. Griffin debuted at Triple-A. Full scan of all 28 players.

~32% CUP. ECD April-May. Jordan Lawlar fractured his wrist and is out 6-8 weeks. Arizona's outfield is thin. Waldschmidt is slashing .316/.426/.579 at Triple-A Reno.

~28% CUP. ECD May-June. 19 strikeouts in 13 Triple-A innings. The service time window closed. The command question is the last hurdle.

~20% CUP. ECD June-July. Slashing .360/.492/.520 through 13 Triple-A games with 10 walks. Rafael Devers blocks the direct path. The outfield route is narrow but live.

~22% CUP. ECD June-July. A .405 OBP and 17.2% chase rate through 10 Triple-A games at age 20. The power has not arrived yet. When it does, Minnesota decides fast.

Below scoring threshold. Milwaukee's No. 1 prospect at Double-A Biloxi at age 18. Walked more than he struck out at Single-A. Sub-Batch B tracking candidate.

34% CUP. ECD April 17. Baseball's No. 1 prospect starts Triple-A with the PPI clock ticking and an extension conversation waiting in the background.

The Mariners have 19 days to decide between a PPI pick and service time control. The model had April 9 before the announcement.

38% CUP, the highest in Sub-Batch A. Every feature pointed the same direction. Resolved the day the piece published.

22% CUP on March 20. Catcher base rate suppressor applied. He made the roster anyway alongside Rutschman. Resolved YES. The second positive outcome in Sub-Batch A.

23% CUP resolved YES. Messick won the fifth starter competition outright when Logan Allen was optioned. He is in Cleveland’s Opening Day rotation.

35% CUP. ECD May 14. The 2024 No. 1 overall pick spent the spring turning heads in Goodyear and Tokyo. Vogt said go play and stay ready. The model agrees.

He debuted April 8, 2025, hit .118 in 12 games, and came back down. This spring he got sober, added 40 pounds, and won Spring Training MVP again. 28% CUP. April window. COL 1.02 org coefficient.

Back-to-back homers in game two at Albuquerque. Career-high 5 RBI. Colorado's 1.02 org coefficient is the most aggressive in the model.

Jackson Chourio on the IL with a fractured left hand. Williams bats second at Triple-A with PPI-High status. The 40-man is all that remains.

Grade 1 oblique, Feb 26. PPI forfeited. Jacksonville rotation is thin. A 2.31 ERA and 38.6% K rate from 2025 say the talent is ready.

22% CUP. Recurring back issue kept him out of all spring training. Just started swinging a bat. No return to game action yet. The April window has elapsed.

.382 BA in 9 Triple-A games. 6 doubles, 7 walks, 2 strikeouts. PPI deadline passed without a promotion. Draft pick lost. June call-up window remains open.

Right shoulder impingement. Made 2.2 IP rehab start at Single-A Dunedin. Berrios, Bieber, and Ponce all also injured. Late April return is the working timeline.

15% CUP each. Both opened at Double-A Arkansas. Dipoto compared them to Miller and Woo in 2023. Seattle rotation health determines when the call-up comes.

.433 OBP and 36 steals at Single-A in 2025. Opens 2026 at High-A Bowling Green. The Rays’ 0.85 org coefficient is the dominant suppressor. ECD July 29.