Sub-Batches A–C · Model v0.5 · 2026 Season

Prospect
Analysis

Call-up analysis for every player the CUP model scored in 2026. Each piece was published before the outcome was known, and each one now carries the number it was locked at and what actually happened. The season is complete and all 107 predictions are graded.

25

Called up

107

Graded

26

Articles

Oct 8

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MKDC Research · New MetricJuly 11, 2026

BSAx: The Bat Speed the Leaderboard Misses

Who swings hardest for their size and age? A new lens on public bat-tracking data, from the new MKDC research section.

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Six orgsAugust 20, 2026

Six Debuts in Nineteen Days

Clark, Lombard, Genao, Culpepper, Smith and Baez all reached the majors in August. Five carried locked numbers, and the bands held their order exactly.

DETAugust 6, 2026

The Trade That Proved the Point

Zyhir Hope was traded and Max Clark debuted inside 48 hours. Our blocked-prospect thesis got tested in public, and Clark’s 33 percent resolved yes.

CLE · SSJuly 16, 2026

Angel Genao: The Quietest Big Number on the Board

A .418 on-base run at Akron, a promotion to Columbus, and a 40-man spot already secured. The model has him at 45 percent with an August window.

SEA · OFJuly 16, 2026

Lazaro Montes: Twenty-Five Homers, One Bus Ride Left

The loudest bat in the Mariners system got the Tacoma call July 6. The model scores him at 44 percent, with Seattle’s own patience as the last obstacle.

Season Preview March 26, 2026

Opening Day 2026: CUP Scores and Call-Up Predictions

The full Sub-Batch A leaderboard at Opening Day. Who made the roster, who went to Triple-A, and what the model said before the season started.

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ARI Apr 19, 2026

Waldschmidt Is Hitting .316 in Reno. Lawlar Is Hurt. The Door Is Open.

~32% CUP. ECD April-May. Jordan Lawlar fractured his wrist and is out 6-8 weeks. Arizona's outfield is thin. Waldschmidt is slashing .316/.426/.579 at Triple-A Reno.

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CWS Apr 19, 2026

Hagen Smith Has a 1.38 ERA at Triple-A. Chicago Is Almost Ready.

Locked at 45 percent in Sub-Batch B, called up Aug 9.

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SF Apr 19, 2026

Eldridge Is Raking in Sacramento. San Francisco Has No Room.

~20% CUP. ECD June-July. Slashing .360/.492/.520 through 13 Triple-A games with 10 walks. Rafael Devers blocks the direct path. The outfield route is narrow but live.

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MIN Apr 19, 2026

Walker Jenkins Is Controlling the Zone. Minnesota Is Watching.

Locked at 23 percent in Sub-Batch B, called up Aug 28.

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MIL Apr 19, 2026

Jesus Made Is at Double-A at 18. The Clock Has Not Started Yet.

Locked at 22 percent in Sub-Batch C, did not reach the majors.

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PIT Mar 26, 2026

Konnor Griffin Is Going to Pittsburgh. The Model Had April. The Debut Is April 4.

Locked at 34 percent in Sub-Batch A, called up.

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SEA Mar 21, 2026

Colt Emerson Is Heading to Tacoma. Seattle Just Made the Calculation That Could Haunt Them.

Locked at 24 percent in Sub-Batch A, called up.

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NYM Mar 21, 2026

Carson Benge Is Making the Mets' Opening Day Roster. Here's What the Model Already Had.

Locked at 38 percent in Sub-Batch A, called up.

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BAL Mar 26, 2026

Samuel Basallo Made the Opening Day Roster. The Model Had 22%.

Locked at 22 percent in Sub-Batch A, called up.

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CLE Mar 26, 2026

Parker Messick Won the Rotation Spot. The Model Had April.

Locked at 23 percent in Sub-Batch A, called up.

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CLE Mar 26, 2026

Travis Bazzana Is Going to Columbus. Then Cleveland.

Locked at 35 percent in Sub-Batch A, called up.

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COL Mar 26, 2026

Zac Veen Went to the Majors. Got Sent Back. Now What?

He debuted April 8, 2025, hit .118 in 12 games, and came back down. This spring he got sober, added 40 pounds, and won Spring Training MVP again. 28% CUP. April window. COL 1.02 org coefficient.

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COL Mar 29, 2026

Charlie Condon Hit Two Homers in Game Two. The June Window Is Opening.

Locked at 22 percent in Sub-Batch A, did not reach the majors. Locked at 48 percent in Sub-Batch B, did not reach the majors.

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MIL Mar 29, 2026

Chourio Fractured His Hand. Williams Is Already in Nashville.

Locked at 24 percent in Sub-Batch A, did not reach the majors. Locked at 33 percent in Sub-Batch C, did not reach the majors.

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MIA Mar 29, 2026

Baseball's Best LHP Prospect. Oblique Took April. May Is Wide Open.

Locked at 62 percent in Sub-Batch B, did not reach the majors.

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PHI Apr 9, 2026

Aidan Miller Is at Lehigh Valley. Back Injury, No Timeline.

Locked at 22 percent in Sub-Batch A, did not reach the majors.

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DET Apr 9, 2026

Max Clark Is Raking at Toledo. The PPI Pick Is Gone.

Locked at 15 percent in Sub-Batch A, did not reach the majors. Locked at 33 percent in Sub-Batch C, called up Aug 1.

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TOR Apr 9, 2026

Trey Yesavage Is on the IL. Toronto Needs Him Back.

Right shoulder impingement. Made 2.2 IP rehab start at Single-A Dunedin. Berrios, Bieber, and Ponce all also injured. Late April return is the working timeline.

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SEA Apr 9, 2026

Sloan and Anderson Skipped High-A. Dipoto Named the Blueprint.

Ryan Sloan topped out at 23 percent and did not reach the majors. Kade Anderson was called up Aug 22 off a 23 percent number.

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TBR Apr 9, 2026

Theo Gillen Has the Tools. Tampa Bay Has the Patience.

Locked at 13 percent in Sub-Batch A, did not reach the majors. Locked at 28 percent in Sub-Batch C, did not reach the majors.

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