~28% CUP. ECD May-June. Smith has a 1.38 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 13 Triple-A innings. The White Sox held him for service time. That window closed. The promotion window is open.
Smith has a 1.38 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 13 innings through four Triple-A Charlotte starts. He has walked five. His velocity is back to normal numbers. The White Sox are 15th in the American League in ERA. They have said he is not ready.
The White Sox general manager Chris Getz stated in April that the organization wants Smith throwing multiple pitches against both-sided lineups and turning lineups over before giving him the call. That is not a description of a pitcher who is months away. It is a description of a pitcher who is weeks away from satisfying organizational criteria. The model assigns a ~28% CUP, the highest probability of any prospect on this list, reflecting both the quality of Triple-A performance and the depth of need on the big-league roster.
Smith was selected fifth overall by Chicago in the 2024 MLB Draft out of the University of Arkansas. He is 22 years old, listed at 6-foot-3, 235 pounds. He pitched to a 2.04 ERA with 161 strikeouts in 84 innings at Arkansas in his final college season, posting 17.3 strikeouts per nine innings with a 0.89 WHIP in the SEC. He is a left-handed starter with a dominant fastball-slider combination.
His 2025 professional debut at Double-A Birmingham was complicated. He missed six weeks early in the season with elbow soreness. When healthy he struck out hitters at a 12.9 per nine rate but walked them at a 6.7 per nine rate. The walk number was the only real concern. He finished the season with a 3.57 ERA across 20 starts, 108 strikeouts, and 56 walks in 75.2 innings. The Arizona Fall League stint afterward was dominant.
The White Sox assigned him directly to Triple-A in 2026, skipping Double-A entirely, which is an organizational signal. Chicago is rebuilding and has nothing to lose by accelerating his timeline once they are satisfied with the walk rate. Through four starts, that rate has dropped substantially from 2025.
Chicago has already secured team control on Smith through this service time game with the early-season hold in Triple-A. Players need 172 days of roster time in the 186-day season to earn a full year of service. By keeping Smith in Charlotte through mid-April, the White Sox have guaranteed an extra year of team control regardless of when they call him up from this point forward. The timing constraint that existed on April 9 no longer applies.
This means the decision is now purely performance-based. The White Sox will promote Smith when they are satisfied with his command of multiple pitches against lineups seeing him for the second and third time. Based on his current trajectory, that satisfaction comes before May is over.
The White Sox rotation is struggling. Shane Smith was returned to Triple-A after posting a 10.80 ERA in three starts. Every week Smith stays dominant in Charlotte and the big-league staff posts a team ERA above 4.50 makes the organizational calculus harder. The model's ECD is late May. If the control metrics stay where they are in April, that date compresses.