MKDC Baseball
Call-Up Probability Engine
Colorado promotes within weeks of a prospect being ready. Tampa Bay keeps players at Triple-A until the body of work is overwhelming. The Dodgers have a roster so stacked that top-100 prospects sit for years. Every org behaves differently for documented reasons. This guide covers all 30.
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Two prospects with identical talent and identical Triple-A statistics will reach the major leagues on very different timelines depending on who employs them. That is not a theory. It is a documented pattern across three years of promotion decisions.
In 2021, the Seattle Mariners' then-president Kevin Mather said publicly that the organization delayed Jarred Kelenic's call-up specifically to control his service time. Seattle's promotion behavior has followed the same pattern before and after that statement. In 2026, Colt Emerson went to Triple-A Tacoma with a clear roster opening in Seattle's infield. Service time was the reason.
Colorado operates the opposite way. The Rockies have promoted Triple-A-ready players faster than almost any organization in baseball for the past decade. Not because they are generous, but because they are rarely in a competitive position where service time management changes the financial outcome meaningfully.
All 30 MLB organizations. Four tiers. One sentence of documented reason per team. Delivered instantly when you subscribe to the weekly MKDC Baseball update.
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Call-up probability updates for all 27 tracked prospects when roster moves, injuries, or org decisions change the timing.
Extension announcements that change a prospect's service time clock before the market prices it in.
The specific IL moves that open a roster spot for a tracked prospect.
Calibration notes when a prediction resolves, logged against the original probability on the public record.