Two Sub-Batch A outcomes resolved on Opening Day. J.P. Crawford opened the season on the IL with shoulder inflammation, which directly affects Colt Emerson’s call-up timeline. Konnor Griffin went 1-for-3 with a walk, a stolen base, and two runs scored in his Triple-A debut. Here is the full Week 1 scan.
Carson Benge (NYM, OF) Resolved YES. Made the Mets’ Opening Day roster on March 26. The model had him at 38% CUP, highest in Sub-Batch A. First resolved outcome in the log.
Samuel Basallo (BAL, C) Resolved YES. Made the Orioles’ Opening Day roster on March 26. The model had him at 22% CUP, with a catcher base rate suppressor applied. He made it anyway, paired with Rutschman as a DH-catcher platoon. Second resolved outcome.
Two resolved positives in two days. Both are logged in the calibration record and will count toward the June 18 Brier score.
J.P. Crawford opened the 2026 season on the 10-day injured list with right shoulder inflammation, retroactive to March 22. The Mariners placed him there when they set their Opening Day roster on March 25. Leo Rivas is starting at shortstop while Crawford works through a throwing program in Arizona.
This is the variable the Colt Emerson article specifically flagged as the one the model could not price: “J.P. Crawford’s shoulder. It kept him out of the lineup for most of the final two weeks of spring. If Crawford opens the year on the IL, Emerson is in Seattle before April 9, and the PPI math flips entirely.”
Crawford is now on the IL. Emerson is in Tacoma.
Seattle is not calling Emerson up immediately. They are using Rivas, a 28-year-old utility infielder who hit .244 last season. Manager Dan Wilson said Crawford “should be in a good spot” and the team expects a short absence. But Crawford is 31 with a shoulder that has been sore most of spring. The early eligible return date is April 1. Whether he is actually ready April 1 is a different question.
The Emerson situation is now the most live call-up watch in Sub-Batch A. The PPI deadline is April 9. If Crawford is not ready to return by April 5 or so, Seattle faces a genuine decision: keep running Rivas at short while Crawford rehabilitates, or promote Emerson, collect the PPI shot, and deal with the service time cost.
Konnor Griffin played his first Triple-A game Friday night for the Indianapolis Indians against the St. Paul Saints. He led off, drew a walk in his first plate appearance, stole second base, and scored the Indians’ first run of the season. He went 1-for-3 with a walk, two runs scored, and handled all six defensive chances at shortstop cleanly. Indianapolis lost 4-2.
The debut was encouraging rather than dominant. He reached base twice and ran the bases well. He did not face the kind of premium velocity that gave him trouble in spring training, but it was one game. The Triple-A debut clock is now running. The PPI deadline is April 9. Griffin has played one Triple-A game.
Pittsburgh has 12 days to decide whether they want the PPI pick. The model scored this at 34% CUP with April 17 as the ECD mid. Nothing from day one changes that number, but nothing from day one makes it look wrong either.
Travis Bazzana opened his Triple-A Columbus season Friday against Iowa. The model has him at 35% CUP with ECD May 14. No material news this week. Cleveland’s middle infield (Arias and Rocchio combined for a .634 OPS in 2025) is his eventual path. This is a story that plays out in May, not March. Stay healthy is the entire story right now.
Four players in Sub-Batch A are active major leaguers who were already on rosters at the March 20 run date. Their CUP was scored as ACTIVE (binary 1) and all have now appeared in regular season games:
JJ Wetherholt (STL) is starting at second base for St. Louis. The Cardinals traded Brendan Donovan to Seattle to open the spot, and Wetherholt hit .455 OBP in spring. He is in the lineup.
Nolan McLean (NYM) started Game 1 for New York against Pittsburgh at Citi Field as the Mets’ No. 2 starter behind the ace.
Andrew Painter (PHI) made his MLB debut March 31 as scheduled, starting for the Phillies as their No. 5 starter in his return from Tommy John surgery.
Chase DeLauter (CLE) is in the Indians’ Opening Day lineup in a bench and platoon role due to lower-body soreness history limiting everyday status.
Crawford’s early eligible return date is April 1. If he is not activated by April 3 or 4, Seattle will be running out of time to preserve the Emerson PPI window. The April 9 deadline is the most important date on the model calendar right now. Check the Mariners transaction wire daily.
The full calibration log is updated with this week’s resolved outcomes. The leaderboard reflects current status for all 27 players. Next full weekly scan: Saturday April 4.