Konnor Griffin goes 1-for-4 with a double and an RBI in his MLB debut tonight. Pittsburgh wins 5-4. Ten prospects resolved YES in week 1. The model’s biggest magnitude miss gets a calibration flag. PPI deadline is 6 days away.
Griffin: Debut Night, April 3
Konnor Griffin started at shortstop at PNC Park tonight against the Baltimore Orioles and went 1-for-4 with a double, 1 RBI, 1 walk, and 1 run scored. The Pirates won 5-4. Mitch Keller got the win in 6 innings. Gregory Soto closed it out.
The double came in the second inning as part of a four-run Pittsburgh frame that turned the game. Griffin drew a walk later in the night and crossed the plate once. It was not a flashy line, one hit, one extra-base, quiet on contact, but for a 19-year-old playing his first professional game above Double-A, it was clean.
The model had Griffin at 34% CUP with an ECD of April 17 via Pathway B on March 20. He was called up April 2, debuted April 3, and resolved inside the window. The calibration log shows it: ECD April 17, called up April 4 (official debut April 3), 13 days ahead of mid-ECD.
The PPI question is intact. No extension was signed before his debut. Pittsburgh is eligible for the draft pick if Griffin wins NL Rookie of the Year or finishes top three in MVP voting before arbitration. The $140 million extension is still being finalized but has not been announced as signed.
Week 1 Resolved: All 10
JJ Wetherholt: STL 2B
Opening Day starter. Spring .455 OBP. Original CUP ~50%. Resolved YES. PPI preserved.
In the log.
Carson Benge: NYM OF
Made the Opening Day roster March 26. Original CUP 38%, ECD April 10. Resolved 15 days early. Tauchman opt-out clause forced the Mets’ hand.
Analysis
Samuel Basallo: BAL C
Opening Day roster. Spring .333/.422/.692, 3 HR. Original CUP 22%, ECD April 16. Resolved 21 days early. Splitting C/DH duties with Rutschman.
Analysis
Connelly Early: BOS SP
Won the Game 3 rotation spot over Tolle. Spring 1.59 ERA, 16 Ks in 17 IP. Original CUP ~22%. PPI preserved.
Brandon Sproat: MIL SP
Opening Day roster as projected. Original CUP ~23%. PPI: None, prior Mets debut forfeits eligibility with Milwaukee per trade rule.
Kevin McGonigle: DET SS
4-for-5 Opening Day debut. Two-run double on the first pitch he saw. Original CUP ~13%. Model miss, calibration flag below.
DET org behavior
Konnor Griffin: PIT SS
Called up April 2. Debuted April 3. Original CUP 34%, ECD April 17. Resolved 13 days inside the window. Pathway B validated.
Full analysis
Nolan McLean: NYM SP
Opening Day No. 2 starter. Active at run date. PPI eligibility still pending verification, confirm prior 2025 service under 60 days before April 9.
Andrew Painter: PHI SP
MLB debut March 31 vs. Nationals. Active at run date. Spring 2.31 ERA. TJS return on track. PPI preserved.
TJS pathway context
Chase DeLauter: CLE OF
Opening Day bench/platoon. Active at run date. Hot start (4 HR in first 3 games), then foot injury. Load managed. PPI preserved.
Calibration Miss: McGonigle
Kevin McGonigle is the model’s largest magnitude miss in Sub-Batch A. The model assigned him ~13% CUP based on two structural barriers: he had limited Double-A experience and was not on Detroit’s 40-man roster. Both were real inputs, correctly identified.
What the model underweighted: McGonigle’s spring walk rate was 22% and his contact quality against MLB arms in spring was elite for a player his size and profile. For a contact-first hitter with advanced plate discipline, those signals override the structural barriers in an organization’s decision-making in a way the current ±5 CUS cap does not capture. Detroit promoted him anyway. He went 4-for-5 with two doubles and two RBIs on the first pitch he saw in the majors.
He became the youngest player with 4 or more hits on Opening Day since Ken Griffey Jr. in 1990. This is flagged for the Phase 3 feature audit: does spring BB% for elite contact-profile hitters deserve higher weight than the current model allows?
Biggest Status Changes: Emerson and Ritchie
Colt Emerson (SEA) signed an eight-year, $95 million extension on March 31. Per CBA rules, an extension signed before a player’s MLB debut nullifies PPI eligibility. The 1.12x PPI multiplier reverts to 1.0x, pulling Emerson’s CUP from ~24% to ~21%. Dipoto confirmed this does not mean an immediate call-up, the club wants Tacoma reps first. ECD shifts to May. PPI status is permanently None.
JR Ritchie (ATL) is the most urgent open player entering the PPI deadline window. He impressed this spring but Fuentes won the rotation spot. Atlanta is carrying 10 players on the IL including Strider, Schwellenbach, and Waldrep. The rotation depth is thin enough that Ritchie’s path is clearer now than it was at the March 20 run date. ECD revised from April 10 to approximately April 25. CUP holds at ~55%. The PPI deadline is April 9, if he is not promoted by then, his status drops to None. Six days remaining.
PPI Checkpoint: April 9
The PPI window closes in 6 days. The following players carry PPI-High status with no promotion yet:
JR Ritchie (ATL)
Still AAA Gwinnett. ATL injuries give him a path. If not promoted by April 9, downgrade to None. Six days remaining.
Harry Ford (WSH)
AAA Rochester. Spring .214/.353/.286 not enough. WSH unlikely to rush. PPI downgrade expected April 9.
Payton Tolle (BOS)
AAA Worcester. Lost rotation spot to Early. PPI window will not be met. Downgrade expected April 9.
Colt Emerson (SEA)
Already None. Extension signed before debut March 31. PPI permanently forfeited per CBA.
PPI Preserved (active)
Benge (NYM), Griffin (PIT), McGonigle (DET), Wetherholt (STL), Basallo (BAL), DeLauter (CLE), Early (BOS). Verify: McLean (NYM), confirm 2025 service under 60 days.
Open Players: Week 2 Status
JR Ritchie: ATL SP
AAA Gwinnett. CUP ~55%. ECD revised to April 25. ATL IL situation makes the path real. 6 days to PPI deadline.
Travis Bazzana: CLE 2B
AAA Columbus. No update. Vogt confirmed May/June window. CLE infield (Rocchio/Arias) struggling offensively.
Analysis
Zac Veen: COL OF
AAA Albuquerque. No update. COL org coefficient 1.02. Service time window still live April.
Analysis
Thomas White: MIA SP
AAA. Oblique injury. PPI window likely forfeited. Return timeline still uncertain.
Analysis
Colt Emerson: SEA SS
AAA Tacoma. CUP revised ~21%. PPI None. Wants Tacoma reps per Dipoto. ECD May 15.
Analysis
Jett Williams: MIL SS/OF
AAA Nashville. No 40-man. PPI-High. April window live.
Analysis
Parker Messick: CLE SP
AAA Columbus. CLE rotation healthy so far. First man up if injury hits. ECD April 16.
Charlie Condon: COL 1B
AAA Albuquerque. Service time window in progress. .357 BA, 2 HR, 1.286 OPS in first 14 ABs.
Analysis
Coleman Crow: MIL SP
AA Biloxi. No update. MIL rotation intact with Sproat and Harrison added. Jun window.
Harry Ford: WSH C
AAA Rochester. Spring .214/.353/.286. May window live. PPI downgrade expected April 9.
WSH org behavior
Payton Tolle: BOS SP
AAA Worcester. Lost spot to Early. If Early or Oviedo struggles, Tolle is next. ECD May 15. PPI downgrade expected April 9.
Trey Yesavage: TOR SP
15-day IL, right shoulder impingement. Cody Ponce (3yr/$30M) lost for 2026 with knee injury. TOR rotation in crisis. Urgency elevated when healthy. PPI forfeited.
Hurston Waldrep: ATL SP
60-day IL. Elbow surgery. Out through summer. No window.
Next Check: April 9, PPI Resolution
April 9 is the structural checkpoint. Every player not yet in the majors loses PPI eligibility that day. The model will downgrade Tolle and Ford to None at that checkpoint. Ritchie is the live question, if Atlanta promotes him in the next 6 days, his PPI is preserved and his ~55% CUP stays active. If not, it drops.
The full calibration log tracks all outcomes against the March 20 run. June 18 is the 90-day resolution date for all players in this batch. The Brier score publishes then.